The NCR was losing badly, their forces were stretched thin, to the point allowing Legion Raiding Parties closer to California.

Morale was low too, even for the Veteran Rangers, due to some of the Veteran Rangers being apart of the Desert Rangers of Nevada facing the Legion once, but may still doubt the NCR being able to win.

Legionaries were on their peak Morale, most of them were willing to die for the Legion too, unlike most NCR Infantry who preferred to flee.

Definitely not House. He needs the Courier to deliver the platinum chip to him, and is powerless without it. And his former right-hand man Benny has betrayed him.

It will come down to the Second Battle of Hoover Dam, but with Kimball possibly getting assassinated, and the NCR not being able to lure the Legion into a trap a second time, I think the Legion would win. They will likely still fall apart later after Caesar, without the Courier to cure him, dies of his brain tumour, allowing the NCR to retake it.

Inevitably, I feel NCR will win the war against the Legion regardless of who gets control of the Dam. As Appalachian said, the Legion is one death away from exploding.

Probably the Legion.

Benny/Yes Man maybe (and that's a big maybe) manage to get as far as killing House, but he's probably gonna die in the next step of the plan, getting to the Securitron bunker. He also is unlikely to get much support from any minor factions if he does.

House meanwhile, assuming Benny Man can't force his way in, will probably just sit around doing nothing. Unless Benny makes the mistake of a direct assault on House, his hands are kinda tied by his own rules.

The NCR is gonna continue to be a hot mess, and both the Vegas monorail and Kimball are getting the death sentence as that is what happens if the Courier doesn't interfere in their respective quests.(If those quests are started with factions other than the Legion.)

The Legion on the other hand does have it's shit together, and can easily complete their quests without Courier help. Though maybe a few odd jobs still don't get done, like fixing the howitzer at their base. The Legion is also the only faction that have allies by default, those being the Omertas and Great Khans, who without interference will fight House or the NCR. The NCR also has numerous other enemies in the area including the Brotherhood, the Powder Gangers, the Kings, the Fiends, and everyone's favorite faction of mass destruction, the Boomers. After winning Hoover Dam though the Legion might keel over due to Caeser dying. Or it may just stay together, but be more psychotic under Lanius. Either way the NCR isn't permanently defeated, and can try for 2 out of 3 for Hoover.

Without the Courier's intervention the NCR would likely withdraw from the Mojave and the Legion would likely take over for a little while, but without the Courier's help the Legion wouldn't net the kind of decisive victory that would spur them on to take the Republic.

In all likelihood it'd be a short term gain for the Legion like the Nazi occupation of France, leading to a long term loss when the NCR gets it's shit together and starts taking the Legion seriously.

The NCR wouldn't have such a problem if they committed their resources to combating the Legion, but it seems so far the higher ups haven't taken the threat of the Legion seriously- to the extent that they send the President to do a speech at Hoover Dam where without the Courier's intervention one of several assassination attempts will be successful. The whole of the NCR will be forced to sit up straight and commit to the war effort after the Legion kill their president and take a state a stone's throw from home. Once that happens the Legion will be in serious shit, but until that point they have the upper hand.

Currently replaying for the first time in a decade. From what I can tell, NCR has immense numbers it could potentially call in to overwhelm its enemies. Not to mention their weaponry is quite powerful with vertibirds and power armor and whatnot. While locals near Vegas are mostly annoyed with the NCR basically occupying their land, I get the vibe that the average Joe in the area would rather share their space with a bureaucratic stuffy annoying Republic than an authoritarian gang of brainwashed murderers who execute without trial anyone they arbitrarily deem to be sinners.

Caesar’s forces don’t quite have the numbers that the NCR has, but they’re brutal and vicious and would be willing to fight to the last man, whereas the NCR would likely eventually retreat and end the war if it started taking serious casualties. Also I think the NCR would prefer to let House live, even if they want some of his territory, whereas I’m pretty sure the Legion would eventually get fed up with him and pull the plug. They’re well organized and slightly sophisticated, but at the end of the day they’re just a well themed Raider gang larping as Romans.

I can’t quite decide on House. WITHOUT the Chip, he’s more of an asset to other groups than anything else. Since he’d still probably be looking for the Chip potentially forever, and the Chip we know would be in California, it seems to me he’d side with NCR, besides crucifixions can’t be good for business. WITH the Chip, I think he’d let the other two factions kill each other and then make his move. If the Legion wins at Hoover, his Securitrons would likely easily overwhelm the battered and tired Legion forces. If the NCR wins at Hoover, I think House would declare independence or sovereignty or whatever from the NCR. I think he’d use force to defend his sovereignty and borders if necessary, but I think he’d also prefer to keep a healthy business relationship with the NCR if possible.

Theres a bunch of other variables I’m not even considering here, like who all the gangs side with, Benny & Yes Man, does anybody get the C-Finder, etc….

Personally, what I think would happen is NCR victory and a shaky alliance between House and the NCR. Whether it’s House and independent Vegas or House and NCR Vegas depends on House getting the Chip.

I think I’m gonna do the Yes Man ending, but only because I disagree with House’s motivations and goals beyond keeping Vegas independent. I find his hyper capitalist and libertarian views questionable as hell, and I think the people of the area deserve to make their own decisions. Thing is tho, Yes Man is the safe ending and that just seems boring, but besides not playing, it’s the only ending that prevents the people of Vegas from being ruled by the Big Three, so I’m kind of stuck with it. I’ve said some mean things about this game in the past but I think I just wasn’t in the right mindset when I first played it because I’m loving it. I still think it looks like it’s been passed through a dog, but it’s immeasurably better than I remember. It’s Mitten Squad’s fault I’m giving the game a second chance, so if you have a problem with any of my opinions here, just know that it’s all his fault. Lol jk of course.

Legion short term, NCR long term.

The Legion would win at Hoover Dam, storm in the Mojave killing or driving off all the smaller factions like Powder Gangers, Vipers, etc., the NCR would retreat and fight defensively from the Mojave Outpost. The NCR would probably undergo some changes, as the leadership would finally wake up and see the Legion threat for what it is, and deploy it’s better forces and get better organized.

Without a courier to find or fix Caesar, he dies. Legate Lanius takes over and immediately goes full-on in an assault on New California. Since the Mojave Outpost is sort of a bottleneck, the Legion will lose a lot of men trying to take it. I could also see Lanius turning on groups that Caesar had probably left alone, like Jacobstown and the Bright Brotherhood/Nightkin in the Repconn facility, which means losing more troops trying to take the facility.

I think it’s almost certain Lanius would overstretch the Legion or exhaust it’s resources too quickly; his endings where he leads implies that he’s a much more aggressive and ruthless leader than Caesar (in one of his endings he sends troops after the Enclave remnants, even though they literally helped his army win). And if he manages to break through the Mojave Outpost and into the NCR proper, he is bound to face much more determined and fierce NCR resistance. Internally, there’s also a high chance he could face subtle opposition from Vulpes, to the point where Vulpes has an assassin kill him in his sleep.

Either way, the Legion will overstretch itself and either outright collapse or at least be forced to retreat.

^The Legion's MO with gangs tends to be beating them into submission then conscripting all the men as Legionnaires and the women as slaves. Of course with Lanius this might take on a different dimension, likely his single minded fixation on violence would be both an asset and a detriment when it comes to raider gangs. Some gangs will respect his claims to strength, others will see it as a challenge.

That said Lanius is a wild card. The Legion's base of recruitment might be raider gangs but Lanius might still drive the Legion into the ground before even reaching the border with California by taking losses he can't recoup wiping out raiders to the last. Either way a lot of them are going back to old tricks if the Legion goes under, most Legion sortes you see in the Mojave are tasked with jumping caravans anyway so it's not like they're out of practice.

Basically all that, yes, except it won't be the last you hear of the gangs in the Mojave. If anything changing banners and integrating units will reinforce the Legion dogma further so a lot of the raiders will likely be employing Legion tactics and customs. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

If house has his upgraded army, then he would win. Otherwise, i say probably ncr by a ghouls hair

Without the Courier, House never gets the platinum chip, so no upgraded army.